When is the COVID pandemic going to end? So many people have been comparing the Spanish flu to SARS-COV-2. For example, the Spanish flu took place over two years between 1918 to 1920, and consisted of four waves. So here we are almost two years later, and there have been four waves. So it will end in 2022, right? Today we're going to break down how this all might end with specific predictions based on expert opinions, past virus trajectories, and up-to-date research and models.
Novel Coronavirus SARS-COV-2 | Coronavirus 229E
A reminder that this Novel coronavirus carries its genetic info as RNA, not DNA. And it's considered an intracellular parasite, which is a fancy way of saying it can only reproduce within cells. So SARS-COV-2 may think she's that girl, but it's like, are you even alive? when you have your cells or a metabolism Hunt. Although maybe we shouldn't be making fun of her, because currently, she's doing a great job infecting us all.
Even though the flu is also an RNA virus, it is different from the current RNA coronavirus that we're all talking about. It is also value-gazing at the coronaviruses or colds that infect all folks. Each year, a new genius study went back to look at blood samples over multiple decades for the seasonal coronavirus 229E because this virus can infect people repeatedly throughout their lives.
But what they realized through the blood samples was that individuals in the 80s had different immune markers than those in the 90s, and even more so from those in the 2000s. This makes researchers think Coronavirus 229E might also be mutating throughout these decades. That's maybe what's causing reinfection. It's not just fading immune response.
SARS-COV-2 virus join the other 4 Coronaviruses
So the big question is, when will the SARS-COV-2 virus join the other four coronaviruses that circulate throughout populations and cause relatively mild colds? How does that happen now? That is the big question. On the other hand, it could become endemic, meaning infections stabilize without these unexpected spikes.
That would require a low reproduction number, like R-1, meaning an infected person is likely to infect only one other person, not like this Avocado variant, which is making graphs of cobalt cases look like a comedic joke straight line up. On the other hand, SARS-COV-2 could become something more threatening, like the bad flu or something even worse. It's a myth to say that virus only evolve to become milder, which is a narrative that keeps getting pushed. It's possible, but the reality is far more complex.
The RNA inside is a blueprint that needs to get its genetic material into the cytoplasm of your cells. Then the ribosome starts reading the blueprints three nucleic acids at a time, and then strings them together and creates the protein. But sometimes the incorrect macromolecule can get superimposed to the chain. This can sometimes lead to changes making an offspring virus different from its parent. And these random changes can sometimes be advantageous to the virus.
Early genome sequencing of the SARS-COV-2 virus showed that it was picking up around two single-letter mutations per month.
There are two important ways to think about how mutations affect the virus that we are currently all fleeing from.
1. the transmissibility-like mutations that make it replicate faster or make it more contagious to others.
2. its ability to evade immune response like mutations in the spike proteins that make it sneak past our immune system.
SARS-COV-2 Transmissible & Mutation:
Gamma and beta had a slow of mutations in the Fame spike protein. we're all talking about that made it bind more easily to ace, two receptors in your body, and that made it more easily absorbed into your cell, meaning, it's more transmissible. It's more likely to gain these effective mutations the longer it replicates in a host. So the longer you are sick, the more likely these mutations can happen. This is why these mutations are probably to happen in people that aren't unsusceptible or in people who have are disorder.
Delta Virus too deadly or Transmissible:
Delta, identified in spring 2021, was 60% more transmissible than any other strain before because of mutations that researchers think caused it to replicate faster in the Airways of infected individuals, outpacing the initial immune response, especially again in those unvaccinated. So you have increased transmissibility and evaded the immune response.
Delta is more transmissible than the current cases of flu we deal with or any of those four common colds that we talked about earlier, but it's less transmissible than measles and polio. It's also nice to know that this transmissibility of a virus can't just increase forever. We're dealing with the laws of nature here, and there are certain parameters in our biology. The virus needs to toy with the ability to replicate Airways and lungs, but also with making sure we're not so sick.
It wants us to be out there and spreading. It doesn't want us to be sick at home, in bed, not able to move. The virus wants to infect my family. And when we say want, here is a gentle reminder that the virus isn't sentient and doesn't consciously want these things. It's just that the more optimal versions of the virus will spread more effectively out-competing other variants that might be too deadly or not transmissible enough.
Why is Covid Vaccination so important?
People who are immune through vaccination or previous infection to Delta. But as gains in transmissibility slow, it needs to figure out ways to continue to overcome immune responses, which is probably what's happening right now. Experiments and lab sequencing of variants circulating right now have identified a bunch of mutations in spike proteins that weaken your body's immune response, which has been boosted by vaccination or prior infection.
But the important thing that we do know is that vaccines continue to protect against severe disease. Your T-cell mediated immunity created by the RNA vaccine is a huge step in speeding up and overcoming this pandemic, and that's why getting the world vaccinated is so important. That doesn't mean it'll just go away overnight. But being vaccinated continues to make you more resilient to any mutations in SARS-COV-2.
Perhaps even more important is that it allows you to not contribute to the problem of it becoming even more transmissible or evading immunity. So continued vaccination can build up a wall of immunity that the virus can no longer overcome. Essentially, if the whole world was suddenly vaccinated at once, the overall T-cell mediated immunity would be high enough to help us be more resilient to any upcoming changes of the virus, and as a result, it wouldn't be able to spread as fast and likely become endemic more easily.
There are 6 points that experts think about our future for Covid-19:
- We do a better job vaccinating the world. The overall T-cell immunity of humanity increases, making the virus more likely to be endemic, resulting in outbreaks and epidemics of varying sizes. Like other respiratory infections, we already have more like the current coronaviruses and flu we all deal with.
- We have small changes in the spike proteins that open up parts of society to reinfection. The virus continues to evolve, but we combat waning immune responses with annual vaccines like the flu shot. And the only people who are highly susceptible are those who are unvaccinated and children born without immunity. This one's good, but not likely. We invent a vaccine like a measles vaccine that offers lifetime protection, and the only susceptible people are newborn kids.
- It ends up like respiratory Synthesia virus, meaning it's around like maybe forever. But in the far future, most people get infected in the first two years of life. It is mild for most kids, but it does cause high hospitalization rates overall for infants. As it spreads or evolves. Adults have mild symptoms due to the exposure they already had as a kid.
- It ends up like influenza A, the Whittle bugger that drives global flu. Each year. This BB has rapid evolution and spreads with new variants that can escape the immunity elicited by past strains. This results in seasonal epidemics largely spread by adults who can still have a severe illness.
- Like the flu vaccine, our annual coronavirus vaccine will decrease transmissibility and decrease severe disease, but the quick mutation means that these vaccines aren't always properly designed for the specific strains of the year and will need to continually be updated.
- It ends up like the influenza Virus, evolves more slowly, and is driven largely by infection in children who have less immunity than adults who are more immune from prior infection. And vaccines. It's important to remember how quickly SARS-COV-2 evolves about immune response Will continually explain how often we need to be updating these vaccines.
Right now, this coronavirus is evolving faster than other seasonal coronaviruses or influenza, but experts do predict that it will slow down to maybe needing an updated vaccine every year like the flu or potentially every two or five years, but it's equally possible that it could mutate into something worse. We just can't know for sure.
A lot of people are looking at the UK and the US strategy right now, which is just to sort of let the virus rip and potentially infect almost everyone. And while this might be a high-risk, high reward strategy, It's also leaving fertile ground for SARS-COV-2 to take surprising evolutionary leaps.
Final words:
Only time will tell if that will breed new strains that can re-infect people at high rates or more effectively evade vaccine immunity. So will it end this year? It kind of depends on what the word end means to you we may be hearing about this for years to come even though it's not infecting people as severely as it is right now regardless of the future is in our hands in some ways it is important that we vaccinate the whole world, not just the wealthy Nations because as homo sapiens suffering from this disease.
we all must have the increased T-cell mediated immune responses to help fight against this virus's ability to change or mutate and therefore cause the next wave in the coming future. We hope this article helped what's happening right now seems complicated but it's not as deep as lots of people are trying to make a scene with conspiracy theories and all. These things It's just all about biology and evolution and how all of the things are going to play out with the amazing science that we currently have thank you.